Canada’s e-commerce business is expected to grow steadily this decade, with digital sales increasing and mobile becoming the dominant channel. According to one prognosis, Canadian e-commerce is expected to increase from USD 42-45 billion in 2025 to over USD 67-71 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate in the high single digits. Long-term forecasts using broader definitions predict the market would exceed USD 1 trillion by 2030, including services and B2B segments alongside retail.
Mobile commerce is the clear driver of this expansion. Smartphones currently account for over half of e-commerce traffic in Canada and are growing at a double-digit CAGR, while desktops’ share is gradually declining. By 2030, mobile wallets, app-only offers, and speedier mobile experiences are expected to make mobile the primary mode of online shopping for Canadians. To achieve sustainability, social commerce, and cross-border growth, Canadian SMEs must prioritize mobile-first, data-rich customer experiences as their baseline.
Sustainability Is Now a Core Expectation in Business
In Canadian e-commerce, sustainability is becoming a general expectation, rather than a distinct differentiator. According to consumer behaviour studies, Canadians prioritize environmental responsibility and prefer eco-friendly items with genuine sustainability tales. According to Mintel’s “Canada Sustainable Consumer 2025” research, climate awareness is ubiquitous, even if willingness to pay more remains low; quality and trust are what persuade customers to choose greener solutions. According to market projections for Canadian e-commerce, businesses are increasingly offering eco-friendly products and transparent supply chains to attract environmentally conscious customers.
By 2030, this is expected to transform into “sustainability as table stakes.” According to reports and brand monitoring studies, younger Canadians prioritize sustainable packaging, responsible sourcing, and measurable emissions reductions as core value propositions. According to a global consumer-trend analysis that includes Canadian data, 64% of customers buy from sustainable firms, while 67% switch shops due to a lack of sustainability. For Canadian SMEs, the next five years will be about making sustainability tangible: combining low-carbon logistics, circular models (resale, rentals, repair), and explicit ESG disclosures into digital experiences to retain confidence and compete with larger, well-resourced businesses.
Social Commerce And Creator‑driven Shopping Reshape Discovery
By 2030, social commerce is expected to become the dominant discovery and conversion channel for Canadian e-commerce, particularly among Gen Z and young millennials. Digital platforms, especially video-first and mobile-first settings, play a significant role in product discovery and brand evaluation among younger Canadians, according to consumer trend data. According to e-commerce trends in Canada, social commerce and live shopping are important growth drivers, supported by short-form video, influencers, and in-app checkout. According to 2025-2030 e-commerce trend reports, TikTok, Instagram, and other platforms are emerging as “front doors” to online retail, with Gen Z’s dominance impacting brand tactics.
Live-streamed shopping, limited-time drops, and collaborations with creators are projected to become essential consumer acquisition strategies, even in cross-border scenarios. By 2030, Canadian SMEs that integrate shoppable video, user-generated content, and social proof into their product pages and mobile apps will likely thrive. They must also ensure that their sustainability claims can withstand scrutiny from active online communities.
The Push and Pull of ‘Buy Canadian’ and Global Trade
Cross-border e-commerce is currently a substantial part of Canadian digital retail and is expected to grow further by 2030. According to JPMorgan’s worldwide e-commerce analysis and trend reports, cross-border purchases account for around 15% of Canadian e-commerce spending, with 62% of consumers making at least one foreign purchase. Checkout.com and other payment providers claim that roughly one-fifth of Canadian e-commerce enterprises now make the majority of their sales outside Canada, reflecting the country’s bilingual and globally connected economy. Forecasts indicate that cross-border activity will increase due to consolidation hubs, enhanced logistics, and fintech solutions that simplify duties and payments.
At the same time, there is a significant “Buy Canadian” movement. Despite regular cross-border shopping for price and selection, 64% of Canadians choose to support the home economy and local jobs by purchasing from Canadian websites. Sustainability may exacerbate this tension. Longer cross-border routes typically result in higher emissions, but international markets may provide greater access to circular and reconditioned items.
For SMEs, the next wave is about balancing these forces: using cross-border channels to reach global customers while differentiating at home through local sourcing, shorter supply chains, and lower-carbon fulfilment, which appeals to eco-conscious Canadian shoppers.
A 5-Year Strategic Playbook For Canadian SMEs
Reports suggest a clear strategy for Canadian online-first SMEs by 2030. Go mobile-first by investing in fast, accessible mobile sites and applications with seamless wallet and social-commerce interfaces. Second, integrate sustainability into your operations and storytelling, from cleaner logistics and packaging to transparent sourcing and circular offerings. Third, use social platforms for commerce rather than just marketing, and tailor content to creator-driven, video-rich formats.
Develop a cross-border approach that complements, not competes with, a strong “Buy Canadian” proposition. As Canada’s e-commerce business evolves through 2030, SMEs that connect these four pillars with changing consumer expectations should expect significant growth.
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Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available information intended only for informational purposes. CanadianSME Small Business Magazine does not endorse or guarantee any products or services mentioned. Readers are advised to conduct their research and due diligence before making business decisions.
